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Predicting
Incomplete
Subjective
Decisions

  

The Challenge
Information Flood

Predicting the Future
Incomplete Information
Subjective Information
Decisions With Limited Information

Subjective Information

Sun Tzu's classical approach to strategy teaches that we must be very aware that the objective physical reality of a situation is always different than our subjective perceptions of it. What is usually translated as "deception" in Sun Tzu's work is better described as the awareness that there is always a difference between perception and reality. In the science of strategy, we call this the difference between the objective position and the subjective position.

People can make decisions only based upon their subjective impressions. The less information we have, the more our subjective impressions differ from the physical reality. The fewer information sources we have and the more alike those information sources are, the narrower our perspective. The more information sources we have and the more variety in those sources, the broader our perspective. 

"Insider" information is information about a situation that is held exclusively by one person or group of people. Insider information usually refers to information available only to those who are in a specific position. Outsiders are not privy to it. In chess, opposing players have access to all relevant information except each other's plans. This means that chess has very little insider information. This is very different from a contest such as poker, where each player has access to information about his or her own hand that no one else has. In real-life competition, insider information is critical to future events, but, by definition, most people do not have it.

There are no absolute values in strategy. All values are relative and, because judgments are made by individuals from their own perspective, subjective. There is no such thing as an objective reality called "strength." Strength and weakness are determined by comparing two positions.  From that comparison, we identify positions we suspect are stronger and weaker in one area or another. However, that determination must be tested. Based upon that test, we can then say that various aspects of those positions are relatively stronger or weaker. 

In these relative comparisons, insider information is always in play. We may have insider information about our own positions, but we do not have insider information about the positions that we are using for comparison. So no matter how good our inside information, we are always making decisions out of ignorance.

For a complete description of the process of advancing positions in competitive business environments, we suggest you read our book 9 Formulas for Business Success: The Science of Strategy.

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